Jonathan Foley at the University of Minnesota’s Institute of the Environment  suggests we can feed up to 10 billion people in 2050 by improving crop yields, reducing deforestation and reducing meat and dairy consumption. These are logical suggestions, yet the proposal that meat and dairy consumption should be reduced is likely to be the most-debated, particularly as livestock industry stakeholders may regard this as yet another attack on animal agriculture.

The futility of the “Meatless Mondays” campaign has been discussed ad infinitum, yet in contrast to the Environmental Working Group’s recent report (“Meat Eater’s Guide,” which claimed beef has the second highest carbon footprint of all food items that it examined), Foley does not attempt to promote a vegetarian or vegan ideology or to suggest that climate change could be reversed if only we all ate humanely-certified or organic meat. Instead, the report concludes that resources could be saved if we shifted our meat consumption toward pork and poultry production as: “…it takes 30 kilos [66 lb] of grain to produce one kilo [2.2lb] of boneless beef… We’re better off producing grass-fed beef or more chicken and pork, which requires far less grain feed”

Based on those data, Foley’s conclusion is entirely logical. However, as Carl Sagan said, “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence,” and here the evidence is lacking. A recent review of feed efficiency by J.W. Wilkinson that appeared in the journal Animal, reports that monogastric animals require 4.0 kg (swine) or 2.3 kilogram (poultry) of feed per kilogram of gain. Monogastrics are indeed considerably more efficient than their ruminant counterparts as beef animals require 8.8 kilogram feed per kilogram gain – considerably more than swine or poultry, but far less than Foley’s estimate.

It would be convenient to argue that the errors in Foley’s feed efficiency data negate the report’s conclusions. But isn’t it logical to argue that we should eat meat produced in systems that use fewer resources to produce animal protein? Personally, I spend more than half my time traveling to present precisely that message to the animal industry and to encourage livestock producers to improve efficiency. I absolutely believe that we need to improve productivity and efficiency in order to feed the growing population. However, traditional feed efficiency data have a major flaw – it’s assumed that all animal feed could otherwise be used to feed humans.

Wilkinson suggests that the traditional concept of feed efficiency be re-examined to reflect the quantity of human-edible crop inputs that are used to produce a unit of energy or protein from animal products. For example, humans cannot digest pasture, only 20 percent of the nutritional value of oilseed meals can be utilized for human food and yet 80 percent of nutrients within cereals, pulses and soybean meal are human-edible. By partitioning out the human-edible component of animal feed, Wilkinson demonstrates that the human-edible energy feed efficiency ratios for pork and cereal beef are similar and that dairy production actually produces twice the amount of human-edible energy than it uses (input:output ratio of 0.5).

On a protein basis, cereal beef (or feedyard raised beef) has a higher human-edible protein feed efficiency ratio (3.0) than pork (2.6), but suckler beef (or grass-finished) systems where cattle are grazed on pasture again produce more human-edible protein than they consume (input:output ratio of 0.9). Not only are these revised feed efficiency estimates considerably lower than those quoted by Foley, but they underline the importance of herbivorous grazing animals in utilizing human-inedible forage to produce animal protein.

Numbers have power – it’s always tempting to base a suggestion around a single data point that “proves” the argument. Feed efficiency is a useful metric, but as we face an ever-increasing challenge in balancing food demand, resource availability and consumer expectations, it’s critical that we examine the bigger picture. The ruminant animal has a major evolutionary advantage in its ability to digest forages – we may be better acquainted with the human dietary advantages of probiotic bacteria than our ancestors, but until we are equipped with human rumens (humens?) we cannot hope to effectively make use of all crop resources without livestock as a food source.

 The Canadian beef cow herd is down 20% from its peak in 2005. The smaller beef cow inventory is a surprising result considering:

• Shipments of slaughter cows to the US in 2011 were down 24% from the year before;

• Canadian cow slaughter (based on weekly data) declined about 13% from the previous year

• Producers on January 1 2011 indicated heifer retention for beef cow replacement was up 2.9% from the previous year and in the Jan 1, 2012 beef cow replacements were up 4.3%. So if the industry in Canada is slaughtering fewer cows, it is exporting fewer cows and it is holding back more females to replenish the herd, how is the beef cow inventory going down?

The best answer we have is that the data is coming from different sources and year to year the numbers will not jive well. It is likely that the upcoming July and January surveys will capture the shift in cow numbers in Canada. Canada shipped a lot more breeding females to the US in 2011, some 7,500 more head (+170%) but that still does not explain the decline in the Canadian cow herd. For now, the latest numbers have us scratching our heads.

Total Canadian cattle inventories on January 1, 2012 were pegged at 12.515 million head, 58,000 head or 0.5% higher than the previous year. While the increase will likely capture some headlines, it is relatively small and mostly the result of fewer feeder exports to the US. The inventory of steers and bulls under one year old was up almost 66,000 head or 1.6% from the previous year. It is an inconsequential result since overall North American cattle supplies remain limited and overall beef production in the continent will likely remain limited in the next few years.

The combined US and Canada calf crop for 2011 is currently estimated at 39.975 million head, some 546,000 head or 1.3% smaller than a year ago. The Canadian calf crop for 2011 was estimated at 4.661 million head, 174,000 head or 3.6% smaller than a year ago. The decline in the Canadian calf crop accounted for about a third of the reduction in the combined calf crop, a significant number considering that the Canadian cow herd is only about 5.2 million head compared to about 40 million head in the US.

The combined US and Canada calf crop has declined about 9% in the past 10 years, a dramatic change considering that both countries are striving hard to recover the beef export market share they lost after the outbreak of BSE. As trade normalizes and exports return to pre-BSE levels, this implies significantly less beef supply available for US and Canadian consumers.

Beef demand in both countries struggled during the recession. A recovery in demand combined with the smaller supply will likely underpin significantly higher beef prices both in the US and Canada not just in 2012 but in the next few years.

The contents range from a comprehensive list of equine service providers including addresses and phone numbers, informational articles and advertisements for the goods and services that horse owners use every day.

This is the fifth edition of the “Directory” that Jack Spanable has edited and it looks like he has out-done himself again. This issue’s cover photo is from Sidney Dunkel, the 13-year-old daughter of Doug and Jill Dunkel of Archer City. She has been riding horses most of her life and loves living on her family’s ranch. She is active in her 4-H club and shows horses in several different events, shows cattle and participates in cooking, photography and veterinary science projects.  She took the photo on the cover while walking out in the pasture with the horses.

The WEHC provides the directory to local businesses free of charge. It can be found at feed and farm stores, auto and farm equipment dealerships, clothing stores and specialty shops plus many other businesses in the area. If you don’t see it on the counter, ask for it or stop by the Extension office to pick one up.

The fund would be under the authority of the newly created Texas Grain Producer Indemnity Board. Mitchell Harris, chief executive officer of AgTexas Farm Credit Services, was among nine members appointed to the board in December 2011 by Texas Agriculture Commissioner Todd Staples. The board’s establishment is the result of a bill passed by the Texas Legislature and signed into law by the governor in 2011. The legislation was introduced after a series of financial failures at grain elevators in recent years resulted in millions of dollars in losses to Texas grain producers.

“The risk in the grain sector has increased materially the past seven years as the volatility in grain prices continue to bring stress on the elevator industry and the producers,” says Harris. “Farm Credit has a long-standing commitment to support agriculture and rural America, and we are pleased to help provide the opportunity for Texas grain growers to choose how they cost-effectively self-fund the management of this risk.”

According to the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions–an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that studies climate change and energy policy issues–Texas’ 2011 drought represents the worst one-year dry spell since 1895. And though some rain has fallen in some parts of the state, Brian Fuchs, climatologist for the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska, believes dry conditions in Texas are probably not likely to significantly abate soon.

“In the past 60 to 90 days parts of Texas have had some pretty decent rains and top soil moisture levels are increasing,” Fuchs said. “Most of this relief has happened in northern Texas, but central and southern Texas have not seen this type of relief.”

Fuchs said that predictions indicate drought conditions will continue in Texas through 2012. Some Texas A&M University climatologists speculate the drought could persist until 2020.

Jennifer Williams, PhD, president and executive director of Bluebonnet Equine Humane Society, in College Station, said the dismal long-term outlook is bad news for rescue operators, law enforcement agencies, and horse owners already overburdened by drought-connected animal care costs.

Williams said rescuers are increasingly bearing the brunt of drought-related horse care issues: spikes in hay and grain costs are forcing increasing numbers of hard-pressed owners to surrender their animals to rescuers. Other owners, she said, are simply not feeding their animals or are abandoning them altogether, leaving law enforcement agencies to rely on rescues to care for animals while cruelty cases are pending. As a result, Williams said the swelling number of horses and donkeys residing in rescues is stretching rescue finances to limit and threatening the agencies’ ability to help horses in need.

“The situation is dire and getting worse,” Williams said.

To cope, some rescue operators are making hard choices about how to use their increasingly limited resources. Mark Meyers, executive director of the Peaceful Valley Donkey Rescue in Miles, said the agency rescued 600 donkeys abandoned in central and eastern Texas in 2011, and has already taken in another 80 animals in 2012. In all, the agency is currently caring for 800 donkeys.

“We have had to defund projects and equipment upgrades in order to cover hay (costs),” Meyers said.

Meanwhile the Fort Worth-based Humane Society of North Texas took in 221 equines in 2011, and continues to take in about eight horses confiscated by law enforcement personnel each week, said Sandy Grambort, the agency’s equine coordinator. A $15,000 grant from the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals’ Hay Bale Out Program, coupled with $5,000 more in support from local donors has helped the agency purchase hay. Some of those resources have been used to help local cash strapped horse owners feed their animals. But even with this kind of help, Grambort wonders just how long rescuers can continue to cope under pressure from an even longer lasting drought.

“The crisis can no longer be shouldered by the rescue community alone,” Grambort said. “It will take the entire equine industry–rescues, breeders, competitors, and average horse owners–to get us through.”

Williams agrees, but she worries that the persistent drought will irreparably damage Texas’ horse community before any collaborative plan can be put into place.

“We’re already seeing people take their horses out of the state because of the drought,” Williams said. “If the drought continues through 2012 or beyond, I don’t know what will become of the horse industry here.”