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Northwest Iowa Dairy Outlooks

A local discussion of current science and issues concerning dairying in northwest iowa

 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for Nov. 9 indicate U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 5 million bushels lower this month as downward production revisions of 11 million bushels for Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat and 4 million bushels for durum more than offset higher projected imports. Imports are raised 10 million bushels with increases for Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat and durum. Exports are unchanged, but shifts among classes result in higher projected exports of Hard Red Winter and HRS wheat and reductions for SRW and durum. The projected season-average price received by producers is narrowed 5 cents on each end of the range to $5.25 to $5.75 per bushel. Heavy early season marketings and forward sales limit upside potential for the season-average farm price.

Global wheat supplies are projected slightly higher for 2010/11 as higher world production offsets lower carryin, mostly reflecting higher 2009/10 wheat feeding in China. World production is raised 1.5 million tons for 2010/11 as increases for Argentina, Australia, EU-27, and Paraguay more than offset reductions for FSU-12 and the United States. 


Global wheat consumption for 2010/11 is raised 2.5 million tons with much of the increase reflecting a 2.0-million-ton increase in China wheat feeding.

Corn production is forecast 124 million bushels lower as the national average yield is lowered to 154.3 bushels per acre, down 1.5 bushels from the previous forecast. Feed and residual use is projected 100 million bushels lower with the smaller forecast crop and higher prices expected to reduce feeding. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels as higher prices trim export demand. Corn use for ethanol is raised 100 million bushels with record October ethanol production indicated by weekly Energy Information Administration data and favorable ethanol producer margins.  

The U.S. 2010/11 cotton supply and demand estimates include lower production, lower domestic mill use, and higher exports relative to last month. Production is lowered 455,000 bales to 18.4 million, as reductions for Texas are partially offset by increases in the Southeast and Delta. Domestic mill use is reduced 150,000 bales to 3.45 million in response to recent sharply higher prices. Exports are raised 250,000 bales to 15.75 million, based on increased foreign demand and extremely strong export sales to date. Ending stocks are reduced 500,000 bales to 2.2 million bales, the lowest since 1925. The forecast range for the marketing year average price received by producers of 74 to 86 cents per pound is raised 7 cents on both ends. The midpoint of the range, if realized, would be the highest price since the Civil War.

The 2010/11 world cotton forecasts show lower consumption and ending stocks compared with last month, stemming from reduced supplies.


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