February 14, 2011 US Wheat Supply and ending stocks projections unchanged for Feb.
USDA’s February Crop Production and World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports U.S. wheat supply, use, and ending stocks projections for 2010/11 are unchanged this month. While the all-wheat projections are unchanged, several offsetting by-class adjustments are made to exports and domestic use.
Exports of Hard Red Winter (HRW) and White wheat are each projected 10 million bushels higher. Hard Red Spring (HRS) wheat exports are projected 20 million bushels lower. Domestic use is projected 10 million bushels lower for HRW and 10 million bushel higher for HRS. The marketing-year average price received by producers is projected at $5.60 to $5.80 per bushel, up 10 cents on the lower end of the range. Continued gains in cash and futures prices boost the farm price outlook for the remainder the marketing year.
Global 2010/11 wheat supplies are reduced slightly this month reflecting a 0.4-million-ton downward revision to Ukraine production based on the latest government estimates. Global wheat trade is reduced slightly with small reductions in imports for Syria, Iraq, and Pakistan, mostly offset by an increase for Bangladesh. Exports are lowered for EU-27 and Ukraine, but raised for Canada and Pakistan. These changes largely reflect the pace of sales and shipments reported to date.
Global 2010/11 wheat consumption is nearly unchanged with higher expected food use offset by reduced wheat feeding. Food, seed, and industrial use is raised 0.5 million tons each for Argentina and Bangladesh, but lowered 0.2 million tons for Canada. Wheat feeding is lowered 0.4 million tons for Canada and 0.2 million tons for Iraq. Global ending stocks are projected 0.2 million tons lower with reduced stocks in Argentina, Pakistan, and Syria mostly offset by larger stocks in EU-27, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.