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Northwest Iowa Dairy Outlooks

A local discussion of current science and issues concerning dairying in northwest iowa

 U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered this month as reduced carryin more than offsets an increase in expected production. Beginning stocks are lowered 30 million bushels with a 10-million-bushel reduction in imports and a 20-million-bushel increase in exports for 2010/11, both based on the pace of shipments to date. All wheat production for 2011/12 is forecast at 2,058 million bushels, 15 million higher than last month. The winter wheat production forecast is raised 26 million bushels with higher forecast yields for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and Soft White Winter wheat. Partly offsetting is a projected 11-million-bushel reduction for durum and other spring wheat production as seedings are projected 290,000 acres lower. Flooding and persistent wet soils have delayed planting in North Dakota and Montana well beyond the normal planting window.

U.S. wheat usage for 2011/12 is unchanged. Ending stocks are projected 15 million bushels lower at 687 million bushels, but remain above the 10-year average. The 2011/12 season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at a record $7.00 to $8.40 per bushel, up 20 cents on both ends of the range, reflecting both tighter domestic supplies and higher expected corn prices. The forecast 2010/11 wheat farm price is also raised this month, up 5 cents per bushel to $5.70 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected slightly lower this month as an increase in beginning stocks is more than offset by lower production. Global beginning stocks are projected 4.9 million tons higher mostly reflecting increased stocks in Russia as feeding is reduced 2.0 million tons and 3.0 million tons, respectively, for 2009/10 and 2010/11. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are also raised 0.5 million tons each for Argentina and Canada with the same size reductions in 2010/11 exports for each country. Partly offsetting is a 1.5-million-ton decrease for 2011/12 beginning stocks for Australia with higher 2010/11 exports.

World wheat production is projected 5.2 million tons lower for 2011/12. At 664.3 million tons, production would be the third highest on record and up 16.1 million from 2010/11. This month’s reduction for 2011/12 mostly reflects a 7.1-million-ton decrease for EU-27 wheat output.

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