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Northwest Iowa Dairy Outlooks

A local discussion of current science and issues concerning dairying in northwest iowa

The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates were released this morning by USDA.

WHEAT: Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 50 million bushels reflecting lower prospects for exports again this month. Projected exports are lowered 50 million bushels reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher expected competition from foreign supplies. U.S. exports are projected 45 million bushels lower for Hard Red Winter wheat, 10 million bushels lower for Soft Red Winter wheat, and 5 million bushels lower for Hard Red Spring wheat. White wheat exports are raised 10 million bushels. The projected 2012/13 season-average farm price for all wheat is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and the range is narrowed to $7.70 to $8.30 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are projected 1.6 million tons higher as a 3.7-million-ton increase in world production more than offsets lower beginning stocks mostly reflecting higher 2011/12 wheat feeding for China. China wheat production for 2012/13 is raised 2.6 million tons based on the latest official estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Production for Australia and Canada are raised 1.0 million tons and 0.5 million tons, respectively, also based on the latest official government estimates. Partly offsetting these increases are small reductions for Brazil and EU-27.

Global wheat exports for 2012/13 are raised slightly this month. Exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Australia, EU-27, and India, more than offsetting the U.S. reduction. Exports are lowered for Paraguay and Turkey. Imports are raised for Brazil, China, Iran, and Russia, but lowered for Turkey. Global wheat feeding for 2012/13 is raised slightly with reductions for EU-27 and Australia more than offset by increases for China, Canada, and Iran. For EU-27, higher corn imports and feeding offset the reduction in expected wheat feed use. World wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 2.8 million tons higher on increases for the United States, Australia, Russia, and EU-27.

COARSE GRAINS: U.S. feed grain supply and use projections for 2012/13 are unchanged this month, but price outlooks for corn and sorghum are lowered based on prices reported to date. The season-average farm price for corn is lowered 20 cents at the midpoint and the projected range is narrowed to $6.80 to $8.00 per bushel. Prices received by farmers through October remained well below cash market bids and this year’s early corn harvest appears to have boosted early season marketings placing further downward pressure on the outlook for the season-average price. The season-average sorghum price is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and the projected range is narrowed to $6.50 to $7.70 per bushel. The projected barley and oats season-average price ranges are narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.10 to $6.80 per bushel and $3.55 to $4.05 per bushel, respectively.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected 7.0 million tons higher mostly reflecting a larger reported corn crop for China. Beginning coarse grain stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 1.0 million tons in part reflecting higher 2011/12 corn exports for Argentina. Global 2012/13 corn production is raised 9.4 million tons with China corn output up 8.0 million tons based on recent estimates from the National Bureau of Statistics. Strong price incentives to expand corn plantings and favorable summer rainfall, particularly in the northeast provinces, support increases in area and yields raising them to new records. Corn production for Canada is raised 1.5 million tons this month to a new record on higher yields and a record area as reported by Statistics Canada. Russia corn production is raised 1.0 million tons, also a new record. Corn production is increased for North Korea and Chile, up 0.4 million tons, and 0.3 million tons, respectively. Offsetting these increases are reductions for Argentina, Moldova, and Ukraine corn, down 0.5 million tons each, with lower expected area for Argentina, lower area and yields for Moldova, and lower yields for Ukraine. Belarus corn production is also lowered 0.2 million tons.

Other notable 2012/13 coarse grain production changes this month include a 0.6-million-ton reduction for Canada barley, a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Australia sorghum, and 0.3-million-ton and 0.2-million-ton reductions, respectively, for Canada and Australia oats. All are based on the latest official estimates from Statistics Canada and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences.

Global 2012/13 coarse grain trade is increased mostly on higher expected corn imports and exports. Corn imports are raised 1.5 million tons for EU-27. Corn exports are raised 0.5 million tons each for Canada and Russia. Increases in local marketing year 2011/12 exports for Argentina, Paraguay, and South Africa support higher 2012/13 consumption this month for Northern Hemisphere countries. Global corn consumption for 2012/13 is raised 8.7 million tons mostly with increases of 6.0 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively, for China and EU-27 corn feeding. Corn feed and residual use is also raised for Canada and Russia, but lowered for Argentina, Ukraine, and Moldova. Corn food, seed, and industrial use is raised 2.0 million tons for China, also boosting global corn consumption. World corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected 0.4 million tons lower, mostly on reductions in Argentina, Colombia, and Ukraine. Small increases in a number of countries, including Canada, are partly offsetting.

OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 91.3 million tons, down slightly due to a small reduction in cottonseed. Soybean crush is raised 10 million bushels to 1.570 billion due to strong foreign demand for soybean products. Soybean oil production is raised 460 million pounds on the increased crush and on a higher soybean oil extraction rate. Soybean oil exports are projected at 1.8 billion pounds, up sharply from 1.2 billion last month on exceptionally strong November sales of just over 700 million pounds to several markets including China, Mexico, and undeclared destinations. Soybean meal exports are raised 0.3 million short tons to 8.2 million on strong sales to EU-27, Egypt, and several Asian markets including the Philippines and South Korea. Soybean meal domestic use is reduced 0.1 million short tons to 29.4 million in line with current meat production forecasts. With soybean exports unchanged at 1.345 billion bushels, soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 130 million bushels, down 10 million from last month.

Prices for soybeans and products are all projected lower this month. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2012/13 is projected at $13.55 to $15.55 per bushel, down 35 cents on both ends of the range. The soybean meal price is projected at $440 to $470 per short ton, down 15 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 49 to 53 cents per pound, down 2 cents on both ends.

Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 463 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from last month. Foreign oilseed production accounts for most of the change with increases projected for soybeans, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed only partly offset by reductions for rapeseed and peanuts. Global soybean production is projected at 267.7 million tons, up 0.1 million. Increased production for Canada is mostly offset by lower projections for EU-27 and Paraguay. Lower soybean production for Paraguay reflects reduced yields in line with historical production and yield revisions. Global rapeseed production is projected slightly lower as reduced estimates for Canada and EU-27 are mostly offset by a larger crop in Russia. Global sunflowerseed production is projected at 35.7 million tons, up 0.9 million as larger crops in EU-27, Russia, and India are only partly offset by a lower projection for Argentina. The Argentina crop is reduced on lower area reflecting the impact of excessive moisture throughout the planting season.

Global oilseed trade for 2012/13 is projected at 115.2 million tons, up 0.5 million from last month. Increased soybean exports from Canada and increased peanut exports from India account for most of the gains. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 66.9 million tons, up 0.3 million from last month reflecting higher rapeseed stocks in EU-27 and Australia.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The forecast for 2013 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month as lower pork production more than offsets higher beef production. Beef production is raised as both fed and non-fed cattle slaughter is expected to be higher and forecast carcass weights are raised. Pork production forecasts are reduced from last month as first-quarter slaughter is expected to be slightly lower and carcass weights are reduced in the first half of the year. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on December 28, providing an indication of producer farrowing intentions for the first half of 2013. Poultry production forecasts for 2013 are unchanged. For 2012, the total meat production forecast is raised as higher forecast fourth-quarter beef and broiler production more than offsets lower expected pork production. Cattle slaughter has been higher than expected and carcass weights remain high. Hog slaughter and carcass weights in the fourth quarter are forecast lower than last month. The broiler production forecast is raised based on production data to date. Turkey production is unchanged. Egg production is raised for both 2012 and 2013 based on hatchery data.

Red meat and poultry import and export forecasts are unchanged from last month.

Cattle prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013, reflecting strong demand for cattle through the end of this year and into 2013. The hog price forecasts for both 2012 and 2013 are raised as lower forecast production is expected to support prices. Broiler prices are raised for both 2012 and 2013 as demand has been firm. The turkey price forecast for 2012 is raised slightly, but the forecast for 2013 is unchanged from last month.

The 2012 and 2013 milk production forecasts are unchanged from last month. Lower forecast fat basis exports in 2012 reflect weakness in butter exports but exports in 2013 are raised on higher expected cheese and whey protein solids shipments.

Cheese prices are forecast lower in 2012 on current weakness but the forecast is raised for 2013 as demand is expected to improve. Butter prices for both 2012 and 2013 are lowered as demand is expected to remain relatively weak. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are raised for 2012 and 2013. The Class III price for 2012 is reduced on the lower cheese price but the Class IV price is unchanged as the lower butter price is offset by a higher NDM price. For 2013, Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised as prices for cheese, NDM, and whey are increased. The 2012 all milk price is unchanged from last month at $18.50 to $18.60 per cwt, but the range of the 2013 price is tightened to $19.15 to $19.95 per cwt.

COTTON: The 2012/13 U.S. cotton estimates include slightly lower production, higher exports, and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production is reduced 190,000 bales, as a decrease for Texas is partially offset by increases for the Southeast and Delta. Domestic mill use is unchanged. Exports are raised 200,000 bales to 11.8 million, reflecting relatively strong sales in November. Ending stocks are now estimated at 5.4 million bales, equal to nearly 36 percent of total use. The forecast of 65-71 cents per pound for the marketing year average price received by producers is narrowed 1 cent on each end of the range.

This month’s revisions to the 2012/13 world cotton supply and demand estimates show lower beginning and ending stocks, due mainly to a technical adjustment for Turkey beginning in 2005/06. World production is raised 70,000 bales, as increases for several African Franc Zone countries are mostly offset by reductions for Australia and the United States. World consumption also is raised slightly. Forecast world trade is increased 1.1 million bales due to higher expected import demand by China, India, and Vietnam. It now appears that two-thirds of China’s 2012 crop may be purchased for the national reserve, constraining supplies available to mills.

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