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Northwest Iowa Dairy Outlooks

A local discussion of current science and issues concerning dairying in northwest iowa

WHEAT: U.S. wheat exports for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower this month boosting projected ending stocks by the same amount. Continued strong competition, particularly from EU-27 and FSU-12, further reduce prospects for U.S. wheat shipments.

Projected exports for Hard Red Winter wheat are lowered 25 million bushels. Exports are also lowered 10 million bushels and 5 million bushels, respectively, for White and Hard Red Spring wheat, but raised 15 million bushels for Soft Red Winter wheat.

All-wheat imports are unchanged, but small adjustments are made among the classes. Trade changes largely reflect the pace of sales and shipments to date. The projected range for the season-average farm price for wheat is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $7.65 to $7.95 per bushel.

Global wheat supplies for 2012/13 are raised 1.8 million tons with higher production.

COARSE GRAINS: Projected 2012/13 U.S. corn ending stocks are unchanged this month as an increase in imports and lower exports support higher expected feed and residual disappearance. Corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting the strong pace of shipments reported through January. Corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and stronger expected competition from South American corn and from competitively priced feed quality wheat. Feed and residual disappearance for corn is raised an offsetting 100 million bushels with continued expansion in poultry production and a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected sorghum feed and

residual use.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2013 forecast of total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month as higher beef, broiler, and turkey production is expected to more than offset lower forecast pork production.

Beef production is raised from last month largely due to heavier expected carcass weights. Steer and heifer slaughter is reduced for the first quarter, but cow slaughter is raised. Pork production is reduced based on lower slaughter in the first quarter.

The beef export and import forecasts for 2013 are lowered based on slower-than-expected shipments in January. Pork exports are lowered from last month as export demand has softened..

Cattle prices for 2013 are lowered from last month, reflecting slightly weaker demand for fed cattle into the second quarter of the year. Hog and broiler price forecasts areunchanged from last month.

The milk production forecast for 2013 is raised from last month largely due to a slower pace of herd reduction and higher first-quarter milk per cow. The 2013 fat-basis export forecast is raised largely on stronger shipments of butter. Skim-solid exports are raised based on greater nonfat dry milk (NDM). Imports are unchanged on both a fat and skim solids basis.

Changes in 2012 estimates of supply and use reflect revised annual data.

Prices for cheese and whey are lowered based on expectations of increased production and moderate demand. The forecast butter price is unchanged from last month and the range is tightened. The forecast price of NDM is raised as stronger export demand is expected to support prices. The Class III price forecast is reduced from last month, reflecting weaker cheese and whey prices while Class IV is increased due to higher NDM prices. The all milk price for 2013 is raised to $19.00-$19.60 per cwt.

COTTON: The 2012/13 U.S. cotton estimates include larger exports and lower ending stocks relative to last month. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged. Exports are raised 250,000 bales based on strong sales and shipments in recent weeks. Endingstocks are now forecast at 4.2 million bales, equal to 26 percent of total use. The forecast range for the average price received by producers of 70 to 73 cents per pound is raised 1 cent on the lower end.

This month’s 2012/13 world cotton estimates show higher production, consumption, and trade, with ending stocks reduced marginally. World production is raised about 900,000 bales from last month, including a 1.0-million-bale increase in the China crop, based on recent statistical reports for the eastern provinces and on classification data for Xinjiang.


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