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Northwest Iowa Dairy Outlooks

A local discussion of current science and issues concerning dairying in northwest iowa

The milk production forecast for 2017 is lowered as reductions in milk per cow offset increases in milk cow numbers. Fat basis imports are reduced on weaker imports of cheese and butterfat products, but imports of milk protein products support a higher skim-solids basis import forecast. Fat basis exports are lowered on weaker sales of whole milk powder (WMP), but skim-solids basis exports are raised as weaker WMP is more than offset by higher sales of a number of skim-based products.

Ending stock forecasts are raised on both a fat and skim-solids basis, reflecting current large supplies and lower expected domestic use.

Dairy products price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey are lowered as both domestic and international supplies are large. As a result both Class III and Class IV price forecasts are reduced from last month. The all milk price for 2017 is lowered to $17.40-$17.90 per cwt.

This month’s 2016/17 U.S. corn outlook is for increased corn

used to produce ethanol, reduced feed and residual use and unchanged ending stocks. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $3.25 to $3.55 per bushel.

Projected prices for soybeans and products are reduced this month. The season-average soybean price is lowered 5 cents at the midpoint to $9.55 per bushel based on marketings to date and lower expected prices for the second half of the marketing year. Soybean oil prices are projected at 31 to 33 cents per pound, down 1.5 cents at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $310 to $330 per short ton, down $5.00 at the midpoint.

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